Xinhecheng (002001): Improved performance compared to the previous quarter, construction in progress increased again and new projects were put into production soon
The event company released the 2019 semi-annual report on the evening of August 22, and the company achieved revenue of 38 in the first half of 2019.
7 ‰, with a 10-year average growth rate of 17%; net profit attributable to mothers11.
6 ‰, an average of 44% over a ten-year period;
6 ‰, an average of 47% over ten years; net cash flow from operating activities7.
6 ‰, an average of 58% in ten years; achieve an average ROE7.
0%, a decline of 6 per year.
A brief comment on the decline in the company’s performance was mainly due to the base number break in the first half of 2018. At the end of 2017, due to the BASF accident, the VA and VE prices in the first half of 2018 were at historical highs, and the average prices in the first half of the year were as high as 1050 and 81.
4 yuan / kg, and the average price in the first half of this year was 371,43.
8 yuan / kg, at least 65% and 46% respectively.
In absolute terms, the increase in product prices in the first half of 19 resulted in a decrease in revenue, and a decrease in gross profit margin reduced the company’s gross profit by 12%.
00 ppm; tax and surcharges reduced by 0.
35 trillion; three fees reduced by 0.
1.3 billion; other income and investment income increased by 0 in total.
61 trillion; points reduced by 1.
74 ppm, the above factors reduce the total net profit by 9%.
170,000 yuan, and the company’s return to its mother’s net profit fell by 9.
03 billion is close.
The performance has improved significantly from the previous quarter. The increase in VE prices and the increase in product volume are expected to be mainly due to the company’s single quarter Q6 results.
45 trillion, a significant improvement of 26% from the first quarter, and the absolute value increased by 1.
34 trillion, mainly due to: the increase in revenue and the gross profit margin remained basically the same and the gross profit increased by 0.
92 ppm; three-fee reduction of 0 from the previous month.
26 ppm, mainly due to changes in financial costs due to exchange rate changes; net investment income increased by 0.
67 ppm; net income from fair value changes decreased by 0.
12 trillion; digits increase by 0.
40 ‰, the legal total increases the net profit by 1.
3.3 billion, an increase of 1% from the net profit of Guimu.
34 trillion are basically the same.
In the case where the prices of VA and VD3 are slightly lower than the previous month, the significant improvement in Q2 performance is mainly related to the rebound in the VE and methionine prices.Product output has also increased.
Construction in progress has increased again, new projects are about to start production. In particular, the company’s 2019 Interim Report on construction in progress has increased significantly by another 30% to 63.
400 million, the ratio of construction in progress / fixed assets reached 122%, and the growth attribute is more prominent.
Decomposing from the company’s list of important construction projects, it can be found that the increase in the company’s construction projects is mainly the 25 夜来香体验网 protein methionine project, the first phase project of Shandong Industrial Park, the first phase project of Heilongjiang Industrial Park, and the contribution of Heilongjiang Xinhao project.The project progress in the 19-year interim report reached 25%, 85%, 80%, and 94%, while the project progress accounted for only 6%, 45%, and 48 in the 2018 annual report.
VA: BASF ‘s further explanation of the production shutdown in 9 months will distort the subsequent trend. The recent VA prices are mainly affected by the following factors: ① BASF ‘s VA1000 and AD3 products have been discontinued for at least the end of October.
In June, BASF stopped production of two vitamin powder products, VA1000 and AD3, due to a cooling device failure.
At the beginning of July, BASF revealed further progress, weighing on the planned shutdown in September-October to cooperate with the expansion plan. The production of the above products cannot be resumed before November.
② Carbohydrates (estimated in April 2019) Vitamin A has been tightly supplied due to DSM wastewater treatment issues, and industry inventory levels are low.
③ In September, BASF will further explain the production suspension and supply restoration. If the production suspension event exceeds expectations again, it will lead to further increase in VA prices. VE: The long-term situation has improved, anti-dumping of cresol in the medium term, and the expected short-term energy storage and production shutdown are expected. The price increase trend will gradually occur. VE prices are mainly affected by the following factors: ① DSM’s acquisition of Nent Technology Industry has returned to the 4 major families.
On August 20th, DSM’s acquisition of Yimante completed the change of industry and commerce. DSM’s acquisition of Nent was finally announced. This move will enable DSM to control Nent technology and some small and medium-sized manufacturers (because of the reliance on Nent supply), the industry willBack to DSM, BASF, Xinhecheng, and Zhejiang Medicine, the four family structures have increased their concentration significantly.
② tight supply of m-cresol and anti-dumping incidents.
Since entering 2019, the trend of domestic m-cresol imports and the average unit price of imports has diverged. Imports have decreased while average unit prices of imports have gradually increased. We believe that this may be related to the tight supply of m-cresol overseas.
In particular, during the month of April, cresol imports plummeted and exports increased sharply, directly changing from net imports to net exports; although imports improved and picked up in May, the average unit price of imports nearly doubled.
50% VE powder consumes about 0 per unit of m-cresol.
25. Regardless of the insufficient supply of “quantity” or the increase in cost of “price”, the price of m-cresol replacing VE provides strong support.
Since entering June, the average import and export volume of m-cresol has rebounded, and the average unit price of imports has also fallen to a level slightly higher than that in April, but it is still relatively high. With the anti-dumping incident of imported m-cresol, it is expected that m-cresol will remain in the future.Will support the VE price.
③ After DSM acquires Nent Technology, there is no expectation of technical transformation to stop production.
Methionine: The beginning of the production capacity competition is over. The industry is waiting for the inflection point to start. In the second half of 2016, the price of methionine began to fall all the way. After April 2018, it fell below the 20 yuan mark, and it was 16 in early April 2019.
After a record low of 9 yuan, despite the anti-dumping stimulus to improve the rebound, the current price of solid eggs has fallen to 17 again.
0 yuan / kg.
Since 2019, the methionine industry first ushered in anti-dumping on April 10th, and then Novozymes terminated its 12-year expansion plan. The industry bottoming characteristics gradually appeared. From the perspective of new capacity, the industry ‘s new capacity will basically increase in 2021.After the production of finished products, the industry supply and demand pattern will gradually usher in an inflection point in 2022.
However, judging from the current price level of the industry, the profitability of most manufacturers is not good, and manufacturers with higher costs may have penetrated the cost red line, which does not rule out the possibility of industry consolidation in advance.
The company’s existing production capacity of 5 thresholds, the second phase of 10 positions and the third phase of 15 layout, will grow into a new oligarch in the industry.
It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 25.
800 million, corresponding to PE 18, 14, 12 times, maintaining the buying level.