Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Research Briefing: Three Years of Evaluation Successfully Achieved the Revival of Qingxiang Originator
Event description We recently participated in the company’s investor exchange core point of view. 1. The three-year target was exceeded, and the reform achieved remarkable results. This year is the last year of Fenjiu ‘s three-year target liability gambling. The company has exceeded its target.Revenue revenue reached about 120 trillion.
At the same time, the company successfully completed the overall listing of the group, basically eliminated inter-bank competition and connected transactions, and improved its governance structure.
After three years of vigorous reform, the company has achieved a complete reincarnation, and has achieved leapfrog improvements in organizational team building, marketing system building, regional layout, sales scale growth and other aspects, and its operating potential has been released.
2. The proportion outside the province reached a historical high. Blue and white made efforts in the second half of the year and the growth rate exceeded expectations. In terms of products, Bfen’s revenue has maintained a rapid growth of more than 50% this year.The strength is increasing quarter by quarter. It is expected to reach a growth rate of more than 40%, accounting for nearly 30% of the overall revenue. Later, the sub-high-end logic is confirmed again, and the company’s focus is tilted towards blue and white.
In terms of regions, the company’s growth is mainly contributed by provinces. At present, the proportion of sales inside and outside the province has reached 44:56. The proportion of foreign markets has risen to the highest level in history. The company has been paying attention to the pace of development in its national layout.Volume, the market outside the province is in a healthy expansion.
3. Control Bofen next year, release blue and white, blue and white target 20/30 double-billion increments, and maintain high flexibility in performance: After three years of rapid growth, the company will set a year for deep adjustment next year, with the core of “one control and three mentions” ((Quantity control, quality improvement, price increase, and efficiency improvement), with “doing better” first; in product strategy, “controlling Fen, putting blue and white”, put forward a 20/30 double-billion increment target, currently Qing 20 is in the channelThe fundamentals have clearly begun to rise, and the Qing 30 also has a system operation idea.
However, sub-high-end and high-end operations reduce low-end products. After the low-base volume is increased next year, long-term healthy expansion needs to continue to exert efforts in organization, marketing, and consumer training.
4. The gradual improvement of internal management and market operation is expected to further release the long-term potential: along with this round of industry recovery and national reform dividends, Fenjiu has made a fundamental breakthrough in marketing and development; at the end of last year, the company launched an equity plan to further increaseEmployee motivation.
However, after continuous high growth, the company will enter a stable development period of “stability in progress” in the next three years, and the strategy will gradually shift to “plug in high and control bottom,” focusing on structural upgrade.
Due to Fenjiu’s brand power and consumption base, and through continuous optimization of internal management and market-oriented operations, the company’s operating potential continues to 杭州桑拿 release space and continues to be optimistic.
5. Earnings forecast and rating: The EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 2 respectively.
61 yuan, corresponding to PE39 / 30/24 times. Due to the expansion of the company’s brand advantages, it has the potential for national development and long-term growth potential. Maintain the “strongly recommended” rating!
6. Risk warnings: (1) intensified market competition will increase costs and affect profits; (2) the expansion and sales situation outside the province is less than expected; (3) changes in economic growth cause the price of high-end liquor to fall, squeezing demand for blue and white; (4)Food safety risks.